Las Vegas Weekend Wrapup

All the News That's Fit to Blog

The Geeks Are Coming: The geeks are here! Today begins the annual Las Vegas homage to geekdom. Some 140,000 loyal followers of all things geek will bow at the alter of technology and show secrets that will further make our lives better - or at least different. The King of all Geeks, His Majesty William of Gates will present the keynote chatter tonight that will no doubt be backed by more than just bells and whistles. Stay tuned to this blog for a summary of what new stuff the Gatester will show and predict."

We Want our Money Back: Buyer beware. It might come as a surprise to some investors that real estate is not guaranteed to increase in value regardless of economic conditions. Many of those getting bitten in the wallet right now had dollar signs in their eyes a few years ago when they bought spec homes and properties hoping to continue to ride the wave of inflated housing prices in the Valley of the Dollars. Some buyers are not only above the Strip, but are over their heads.

Earlier in the decade when land began to become scarce and buildings began to reach for the sky, a new concept was brought to town - the condo-hotel. The idea is to own a high rise condo that overlooks the lights and glamor of the Strip and rent it out to tourists. The hucksters who sold the units allegedly painted very pretty pictures and became prophets of profits which have not materialized. Their penthouse is sending them to the poorhouse. "Foul!" cried the investors and thus far about 40 have sued the company for misrepresenting profits. Can you say, "What you see is what you get?"

Lost in the Translation: Ever tried to tell a joke in a foreign language? Too often the punch line is lost in the translation. Other times innuendos and double entendres just don't make it in the other language. Such was the allegation of an insult at a pre-Christmas show attended locally by a large group of Iranian-Americans. A featured artist made a comment in Farsi, the local language, that some in the audience found offensive. Others said those offended didn't understand the context of the remark. Still, the question remains, did the Farsi folks parse the program to pillory the presenter, or was it just a farce? I have no clue. I'm sticking to English.... "A Rabbi, a priest, and a minister..."

Flooding in Fernley, Nevada: Dateline Fernly Nevada.... Congratulations to the news staff at CNN who, despite their east coast studio location, were able to properly pronounce Nevada (the "a" sounds like the "a" in cash. not like the "a" in "aaaaw, busted"). Some are calling the bursting of the levee "Little Katrina." Probably a good analogy since nobody has seen hide nor hair of FEMA. It will be interesting to see if any of the presidential candidates who arrive for the January 19 Nevada caucus will tour Fernley.A little blogging music Maestro... How about Brittany Spears, "You Drive Me Crazy."

Dr. Forgot

We're Number One! (again)

Nineteen of 20... Not Bad

Ok, I admit it. Although I'm not a member of the Chamber of Commerce or on the board of the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority, I was bummed last year when I discovered that after a run of 19 consecutive years, Nevada had ceded the title of fastest growing state in the union. To Arizona, no less. Silver Staters felt stepped on, lied to, cheated on and treated like dirt. How could the census takers have given our long-held title away? Could they have missed somebody in the nation's fourth largest state? Perhaps a few aliens living in Area 51. However, this year, despite housing slowdowns and a near recession nationwide, the Valley of the Dollars and other areas of Nevada have regained the title. (add noisemakers here)

Between the two Julys - 06 and 07, Nevada's population grew at a rate of 2.9% to 2.5 million souls while the second place Arizonies grew at a paltry 2.8% according the Census Bureau. Nevadan's take this stuff seriously enough to plan a gaggle of Las Vegas resorts to open beginning in 2009. Even Ivana's ex - the guy with the funny hair has seen the light in the desert and is building a Tower to Trump all others. With the new building and the jobs they create new residents who will continue to flock to the Entertainment Capital should turn the housing slump upside down.

Let's talk for a minute about the so-called housing slump. Historically Las Vegas has had cheap housing, especially when compared to the Earthquake State to the west, reasonably-priced utilities, and decent wages. A couple of years ago housing prices started to boom. It was not unheard of for a development to begin selling homes based on a few models, and buyers selling the homes before they were completed at profits over six figures. Mortgage money flowed easily as "values" continued to increase. That brought in speculators who bought multiple houses with plans to "flip" them. And they did, until the bubble popped and the Ponzi scheme stopped with a few residents and many speculators holding the bag - uh mortgage.

But for resident homeowners of 5 years or more, many saw their home values double, triple, and more. Now that the big city pundits are bemoaning the great sub-prime debacle, they tell us that the average home has slipped in value about 6%, but in California, Phoenix, and Las Vegas the decline could exceed ten percent. HELLO!! It doesn't take a mathematics Phi Beta Kappa to figure that if your has house doubled or tripled in value, then loses 10% of that value, that fact does not send you directly to the soup kitchen without passing Go or collecting $ 200.00. The folks who are hurt are those who bought at the peak of the market - mostly speculators. Save your crying towels for those whose homes were destroyed by Katrina and those who did not have a 4-5 year run-up in prices.

What's the big deal with states such as Nevada, Texas, and Arizona growing in population while others such as Ohio, Michigan, and Rhode Island losing? Well for one thing, the U.S. House of Representatives and electoral votes can be affected. Texas will probably gain seats, Ohio will likely lose seats, and Nevada, Arizona and Utah may well grow enough to gain another. A little blogging music Maestro.... How about Barbara Streisand's "People."

Dr. Forgot

Weekend Summary

Around the Horn

Psssst, Buddy, Wanna buy a house cheap?: Well they're at it again. Those folks who track the housing market are tracking Las Vegas and they tell us that housing prices are down as are sales of new and existing homes. So if you are tired of getting sleepy in your tepee, now would be a good time to lasso up a homestead. The news is not as bleak as the media and market trackers would have you believe, unless you're a speculator. Problem was that like the tech stock boom, housing prices in Las Vegas continued to get higher than a wino on Two-Buck Chuck. That led to speculators and flippers who moved from flipping fingers during road rage incidents to flipping houses in the hood. Then Crash! Bam! Alakazam! the bubble burst.

The above paragraph is for pessimists. Optimists see that thousands of new hotel rooms are coming on line within the next 24 months or so. A rule of thumb is that every room supports two and a half jobs. The population of Las Vegas has topped two million and is still making like the energizer bunny. My contrarian mind tells me that now would be a good time to either hold or buy but not sell. As Longtime Vegan Kenny Rodgers used to say, "You gotta know when to hold, know when to fold em. Know when to walk away and know when to run." Who'd a thunk Kenny would have been able to predict the future Las Vegas housing market?

Oh my. The economic sky is falling!: The headline in the local paper trumpets, "Jobless rate rises in month. Unemployment in November at highest level since May 2003." The item tells us that the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose two tenths of a percentage point. I guess that is because all those elves will be laid off after Christmas toys are delivered. Hello! A five percent rate of unemployment means that 95 % of workers are working. But dadgum it, if you put it that way, it ain't news.

Caesars dealers get together: Some 560 dealers at Caesars Palace have decided to affiliate with a union of labor , not matrimonial. After all the years of Caesars dealers being sans union, what had been the impetus for organizing. I can name that tune in four letters - t-i-p-s. Another high end casino on the Strip changed the way the way dealers' tips would be distributed and shock waves rocked the paranoid work force. Can the same thing happen at Caesars? Depends who you ask. Executives say it has not ever been discussed. Union organizers say, "Liar, liar, pants on fire." Looks like for the moment at least, the organizers have won a hand.

Heat is on in Las Vegas: Premium gas in the Valley of the Dollars has become more expensive than bottled water. As prices of petrol continue to rise, some folks are actually paying attention to Al Gore's rantings about global warming and the need for renewable energy. Where better to tap solar energy than in Las Vegas where the sun shines 400 days per year (that's like giving 110%). A company that makes solar power equipment recently announced plans to do so among the casinos and the largest solar photovoltaic power plant in the country recently opened at your neighborhood air force base. So why aren't there more federal subsidies to encourage such clean industry? And why doesn't Nevada Power encourage locals to build and farm solar power for their homes? To quote Tevya from Fiddler on the Roof, "I'll tell you why! I don't know." Although ours is the perfect community for the next big musical, "Solar Panels on the Roof."

A little blogging music maestro.... how about, "The Heat is On."

Dr. Forgot

No House Like a Ho-Ho-Ho House

You'd Better Watch Out

You'd better not cry, I'm telling you why. Repo sales are coming to town. The banks are making a list and checking it twice and they'll figure out whose payments aren't nice. Then more foreclosures will make owners frown. If you bought your home on margin, and paid no money down, when lenders threw their cash around like candy from a clown. If the rate you got's adjustable the piper must be paid. The mortgage ain't combustible and your payments will not fade. So unless you're Steve Wynn or one of those guys, like Ed McMahon with a million dollar prize, you will realize that "foreclosure's" a noun.

Much media has been focused on the housing slump. Of course, that, along with the ex-cop suspected of offing a pair of wives and so-called candidate debates conspire to take our minds off the thousands who have died and tens of thousands of American soldiers who have been injured in the Middle East. It makes one wonder just how bad the housing crisis is. One thing is for sure, in my neighborhood housing asking prices have fallen up to a couple of hundred thousand dollars and the five homes for sale at the moment have been so for months, or in one case, years. However it is difficult to tell how many homes that are foreclosed upon will place owners on the street and how many are owned by investors who bought to flip.

Still the Las Vegas population seems to be growing by about 6,000 new residents each month and job growth remains above the national average. That rate of growth (more than 70,000 new residents each year) has continued for more than a decade. That rate of growth has caused the infrastructure problems that one might expect - the opening of a new school every month, roads being built, then overcrowded, torn up, and rebuilt, and shortages of water. But it has also resulted in higher density housing. Apartments and condos that rarely exceeded two stories are now being stacked higher. And for the people who lose their houses? Some will leave, but the majority will stay and move into rentals.

Times they are a changing in Las Vegas and throughout the country. The answer now is the same as it was in the previous elections, "It's the economy, stupid." But the more pressing questions are when will we start to bring our soldiers home in a one horse open sleigh instead of in caskets and how will we know when we've won the war?"

Dr. Forgot