Saturday, January 19, 2008

Who Can? Republican. Who's That Democrat?

And the winner is:

At this writing with nearly 100% of the precincts reporting in Nevada, the local Republicans have spoken. Ant the word uttered from most of the Republican lips rhymes with hit, what is what John McCain and the other Republican hopefuls took from Mitt Romney. While some pundits and pollsters predicted McCain and Huckabee running stronger, that shows their failure to become acquainted with Nevada culture.

Nevada has a large contingent of well educated, well organized, politically savvy Mormons, many of whom blatantly support their favorite son, Mitt Romney. Similar demographics exist in Wyoming a state Mitt also left smiling. But another unmentioned factor exists among Nevada voters - they don't like John McCain. He has railed against legal gambling and supported measures detrimental to the gaming industry. Although McCain is from a neighboring state, he is viewed as not a friend of Nevada. That could explain his third place finish behind the prodigal and "Who the Heck is Ron Paul."

Many pundits felt Fred Thompson would do better than a tie with Huckabee since he is in the entertainment business. Huckabee's showing did not surprise many. While Nevada is generally conservative politically, it is not evangelical. Finally, Rudy Guiliani whose face was on everybody's TV screen in the 9/11 aftermath barely eked out a few more votes than Duncan Hunter - who many voters thought was a cake mix.

The Democrat caucuses were significant if for no other reason that ten to 15 times as many showed up to caucus as in 2006. Not so surprising is that the pollsters and pundits got it wrong again. While they predicted a Hillary victory, the margin of victory over Obama was predicted at ten-15 points. It turned out to be barely a five point victory, and that is with the Clinton campaign pulling out all stops and former President Clinton stumping for his wife at virtually every Strip hotel. The two front runners garnered 96% of the votes between them. Running a far distant third was Senator Edwards who received a mere four percent, and Dennis Kucinich who came in below "none of the above."

Pundits who felt Edwards would do better in Nevada now say he could still play a significant role as king-maker depending on which candidate he eventually throws his support behind. That is, of course, assuming his star does not rise again among the forty-some states that are left to decide who will be the candidate of choice going into the fall elections.

A little blogging music Maestro... the old Dixie standard, Race Track Boogie."

Dr. Forgot

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